Steve's 2004 Season Preview
Ah, here we are. Just hours after "opening day" in Japan and a whole season ahead of us. No more nights in with a book or having friends round for dinner. Baseball is back, and it's about time.
So, it's time to stick my nec k out and predict who will win what. In true baseball form, we wait for the endless dark nights to turn into spring, and then predict what the world will look like when it's all over. No sooner than it's arrived we are writing how it will finish.
But enough of that. Let's get started.
AL East:
1. New York
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay
Actually, that wasn't so difficult. Good pitching may beat good hitting, and the Red Sox have that. But the Yankees offence, if it stays healthy, is, well, offensive. Not only does it have power from one to nine, they would cut you up on a roundabout and drive through a puddle and soak you whilst you waited at a bus stop. They're mean, rich and good, and any decent baseball fan should hate them for it.
The Red Sox lead the league in hitting last year but lose just enough games to screw with the minds of their fans just enough to finish runner-up. Like a sick gambler putting the college fund on Red, I just can't bet against them, but with both arms restrained by orderlies, a second place finish and a wild card trip to October seems more likely.
As for the other runners, they'll finish just as they did last year. It's a lop-sided league, full of improvements. But as one team improved, so did the Yankees and Red Sox. Either one of the also-rans could do well in another division, but they're cursed by geography, and the Yankees. See what I mean about the Yankees?
AL Central:
1. Kansas
2. Minnesota
3. Cleveland
4. Chicago
5. Detroit
Changes abound could alter how this division stands at the end of September. Kansas bolted out of the trap last April, had a great year, almost made it into October. But depth, or shallowness, and wicked invariables took their toll.
Chicago came close last year but I have them fourth this year. Sure, they have Ordonez and Thomas as power men, but it doesn't convince me. The White Sox pitching is shallow, you can hardly paddle in it. There could be surprises, and changes, but in his first year Ozzie Guillen will have his work cut out.
Of course, in a field of nags it doesn't take a thoroughbred to whip it's way to the flag. Minnesota could be one of those donkeys, as they start their own form of "rebuilding", that ugly word that dooms fans to several years of brave faced lies and more spin than a curveball. Joe Mauer may be one constant, and will have more expectations than a wedding night. He may carry this team soon, but all expectations are that he'll rise to the task. But this year, I'll let the guy find his feet.
It would be nice to think the Indians could field the team they want to but that's likely to take another year or two. There's no doubting the strength of their minor league teams, but getting them to the majors is one thing, turning them into winners is another.
As for Detroit, their short-term goals may doom them to more harassment from any group of people who turn up with bats to play them every day. Then again, this same yahoo tact with free agents may make them the most improved team in MLB this season. A 20 win improvement, hell that's marvellous. Couldn't be happier for them. But over 100 losses is still as sure as a tell-all book by November.
AL West:
1. Oakland
2. Anaheim
3. Seattle
4. Texas
Some people would be surprised by this. Oakland over Anaheim? Have I lost my mind? Well, yes, but that's another column. The real reason is that I can't see Oakland starting bad and finishing bad. Let me re-phrase that. If Oakland start bad, they won't finish bad. GM Billy Beane is expert at getting the players he needs at the half way mark and Oakland seem to have always had better second halves and come back to wind up on top.
Anaheim improved and got heavier. Vlad Guererro (now there's a name it takes a while to spell) will clobber his way up the Home Run totals, and Colon, a horse, will plough his way to 200 Innings and 15+ wins.
But the window dressing leaves me dubious. The Angels of 2004 are not the Angels of 2002. The small-ball is good, everyone loves a plucky fighter, but I have to go with my head here, despite the improvements.
Seattle will still rack up 85 wins or so, but will lose it in the stretch. How's that for a one-line sweeping dismissal of a franchise's year?
I can't even remember the other team.
NL East:
1. Philadelphia
2. Florida
3. Montreal
4. Atlanta
5. New York
Being an AL fan, the National League has always been a trouble spot for me. On the one hand they don't have the DH rule, but I'd be able to accept that easier if not for the thought of Pedro Martinez trying to bunt his way on base every fifth day.
Philadelphia should handle it after a couple of prudent off-season moves. That won't alone be enough but they have on their side a division of weak teams. Florida will find it tough to match their World Series appearance and may not even reach the playoffs if the Phillies are as strong as expected and the Central is as strong as feared. The travellers of Montreal should fend off the jet-lag long enough to embarrass Bud Selig but can't be expected to win the division, as sweet as that would be.
Atlanta stand out in my predictions, dropping three places from the first place last year. But without Maddux and Lopez, this could be the year their run of success hits murky water. Hell, I'm probably wrong. You'd be a fool to take my word for it - I struggle myself sometimes. But it's a tall order.
NL Central:
1. Houston Astros
2. Chicago Cubs
3. St Louis
4. Cincinnati
5. Milwaukee
6. Pittsburgh
This division is hellish to play in and hellish to predict. First you have trouble picking a winner. Then, you have trouble with the loser, and this is often enough to make you erase any thoughts of it from your mind and move on to less painful things. The NL Champs could come from the NL Central, and so too could the team with the number one draft pick in 2005.
Houston and Chicago both boast brutal rotations and should build on the hitting that got them within a bloop-single of the playoffs, but as for Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, well, it's best to step back and take a deep breath, grab a blunt object and hurl it in a direction not likely to harm your family.
These teams are intense in being bad, and relentless in their pursuit of it. With no sign of ambition there's little you can hope for other than a payroll that doesn't jangle in their pocket. I'm not saying payroll has to be high, just the talent. These three have neither.
All you can do is turn the music up louder, so you never have to hear about them ever again.
NL West:
1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. Colorado
This Division is wide open, probably the only one that is, and quite frankly I have no new light to shine on it. Arizona lost Schilling but now have Brandon Webb at No 2. Is he good enough to pick up where he left off? For the sake of my fantasy team I hope he is, but hitters have a tendency to work around new pitchers, or at least the good hitters do.
I'd like San Diego to do well if for no other reason than a shiny new stadium with a touch of class, and David Wells, with very little class. Wells proves that you can be fat and ugly and still be one hell of a player, mixing it with the trendy guys.
I like Colorado but they don't look good enough to knock the likes of the Giants and the D-Backs out of the top slot. Any team that plays about 8,000 feet above drowning has got to have pluck, if only because running to first base must be a lung-wrenching struggle.
Los Angeles have to be better offensively, and with Frank McCourt's reign underway, and Paul DePodesta's steering at Chavez, tolerance for anything less won't last long. The Dodgers may be the most interesting team in the NL, if only for what could happen at the hands of their new GM, but a shot at this year? No sir. It will be a year or two before we see the real effect of sabermetrics over tools, but when the effect takes hold, teeth and claws may be all that will release their grip on the division.
AL Wild Card:
Boston Red Sox
NL Wild Card:
Chicago Cubs
AL Champions:
New York Yankees
NL Champions:
Chicago Cubs
World Series Winners:
New York Yankees - I say this only because I'd rather my Red Sox not have to step foot in the Bush White House.
AL Cy Young:
1. Pedro Martinez
2. Roy Halliday
3. Curt Schilling
NL Cy Young:
1. Mark Prior
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Kerry Wood
AL MVP:
Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP:
Albert Pujols - look for 40+ Home Runs, 120+ RBI and an average somewhere around .350. No surprise here, just another average year
AL Rookie of the Year:
Joe Mauer
NL Rookie of the Year:
Edwin Jackson
First Manager Fired:
Jim Tracy
First Yankee on the Disabled List:
Jason Giambi
Likely destination of the Montreal Expos in 2005:
Montreal
Kaz Matsui's Home Run Total:
8
Date the Detroit Tigers will be out of contention:
20 August
Date the Pittsburgh Pirates will be out of contention:
5 April
First criticism of a player by George Steinbrenner:
Gary Sheffield, mid-April
First commercial starring George Steinbrenner and the player he criticised:
First week of May
Date of first big name trade made by Yankees:
A second baseman, sometime around the end of May
Naturally, most of these were made up as I went along. No analysis, no deep thought, just the primal instinct of a fan on the natural high of "opening week". But as we are at the end of March these are as likely as anything else. No research, just standard, glorious guesswork, and I'll duel anyone who challenges them.
When he's not writing about baseball, Steve Bartley likes to watch some good comedy. Offer to send him your Pittsburgh Pirates videos and DVDs at bartley_stephen@hotmail.com