Yes, it's that time of year again! I've thought carefully about this year's predictions, trying to figure out which teams will be playing in October, and which will be forced to watch them on TV. I've tried to keep each team's details brief, and have included the names of the "Key Guys" who are crucial to their team's success. I've also included each team's "Unsung Hero" - whether it be the versatile bench player, the fantastic set-up guy who no-one talks about or even a star guy who doesn't yet get the attention they deserve. Strap yourselves in - here come the predictions!
AL East:
1 - New York Yankees: Lots of new, big names - A-Rod, Sheffield, Brown, Vazquuez etc. make the Yankees the favourites, with a line-up so deep that it should make up for any rotation fragility. They'll miss Clemens, Pettitte and Wells, but Vazquez is primed for a big season. The bullpen is much better with the additions of Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill. They may be overtaken by Boston early on, but that habit of getting things done late in the year should mean a World Series appearance - Steinbrenner won't accept anything less than the World Series.
KEY MAN: A-Rod
UNSUNG HERO: Paul Quantrill
2 - Boston Red Sox: Had a great winter, adding Schilling and Foulke, but the fallout from the failed A-Rod deal will sting - how happy are Manny and Nomar? The offense won't be as good as last year, but is still much better than most, and the bullpen will be better with Foulke and a full season of Scott Williamson. Boston have plenty of key players out of contract at the end of the year - they likely won't be able to keep everyone together. After coming so close last year, the players know that this must be the year to end the "Curse of the Bambino."
KEY MAN: Nomar
UNSUNG HERO: Pokey Reese
3 - Toronto Blue Jays: Lots of reasons to be excited, like keeping Cy Young winner Roy Halladay and watching a great group of young hitters mature. Carlos Delgado will carry the offense - and will be out of contract at the end of the year - assisted by Vernon Wells, Josh Phelps and Eric Hinske. The rotation is boosted by the additions of Batista, Hentgen and Lilly. The bullpen should be better than last year's revolving door, if one of Adams, Speier or Lopez step up as the closer.
KEY MAN: Delgado
UNSUNG HERO: Batista
4 - Baltimore Orioles: Spent big on Tejada, Palmeiro, Lopez and Ponson, but it will be tough to make the playoffs in a hard division. Tejada gives the fans a reason to be optimistic, and the group of young hitters (Hairston, Roberts, Matos, Bigbie, Gibbons) have another year of experience under their belts. The pitching depth is a cause for concern - they may need to deal a surplus outfielder for a #2 or 3 starter. Will be aiming for 3rd place, but must be wary of Tampa Bay too.
KEY MAN: Tejada
UNSUNG HERO: Matos
5 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Reasons to be cheerful, as the D-Rays enter the season with the deepest roster of their existence. The additions of Cruz Jr., Tino Martinez, Fick and Eduardo Perezwill help the younger group (Baldelli, Crawford, Huff) and give Lou Piniella many options. The rotation is still a question mark, although the bullpen will be deeper with Danys Baez closing ahead of Lance Carter. They'll likely finish last again, but they will be much closer to Toronto and the Orioles than ever before.
KEY MAN: Huff
UNSUNG HERO: Eduardo Perez
AL CENTRAL:
1 - Kansas City Royals: After being a pleasant surprise last year, the Royals are serious contenders this season. They'll be helped by a full season of Mike Sweeney, and a healthy Juan Gonzalez - who could be the free agent bargain of the year. This will likely be Carlos Beltran's last year with the Royals, before he heads into free agency - an incentive to win this year. The rotation, anchored by Anderson, Appier and May needs to be more consistent, and they need to work out if Jeremy Affeldt will be a starter or reliever. With manager Tony Pena, the atmosphere will be positive at all times.
KEY MAN: Gonzalez
UNSUNG HERO: Aaron Guiel
2 - Minnesota Twins: Suffered blows by losing Hawkins and Guardado to free agency and the trading of AJ Pierzynski, but the Twins are still a decent team. The outfield of Stewart, Hunter and Jacque Jones (if he's not traded) will be productive, and the overall defense and baserunning will cause other teams trouble. Guzman and Rivas need to step up and fulfill their potential, and Koskie must rebound from injury. The team lacks power, so they'll all have to contribute without putting too much pressure on top prospect Joe Mauer. Whoever closes must be successful, and more of Johan Santana's late-season form would be welcome. Lots of question marks, but Ron Gardenhire's team aren't going to be a pushover.
KEY MAN: Guzman
UNSUNG HERO: Koskie
3 - Chicago White Sox: Weakend by the loss of Colon, Everett and Alomar, this group needs to step up. The defense must improve and the hitters need to put up typical seasons. Buerhle and Loaiza (who can't be expected to win 20+ again) need help, the closer role is unsettled, and I'm not convinced that things are as rosy between Frank Thomas and new boss Ozzie Guillen as has been made out - a lot for a first year manager to deal with. I seem to say this every year, but if the White Sox are going to win this relatively weak division, they have to play as a unit.
KEY MAN: Frank Thomas
UNSUNG HERO: Damaso Marte.
4 - Cleveland Indians: The rebuilding process continues, and things have gone pretty well so far. The young starters behind Sabathia will hope to impress, and a crowded outfield means a lot of competition for places between Gerut, Bradley, Crisp, Lawton and Alex Escobar. Riske will get another shot at closing, and catchers Victor Martinez and Josh Bard will battle to make the position their own. Not ready for contention just yet, but they could sneak into 3rd place.
KEY MAN: Bradley
UNSUNG HERO: John McDonald
5 - Detroit Tigers: Woeful last year, they can't get any worse. They spent big to get Ivan Rodriguez, Rondell White, Vina, Urbina and Jason Johnson, but it is a big ask to avoid 100 losses - improving 20+ games from last year. I-Rod will like the gaps at Comerica Park, but he'll be catching for a last-place team that needs more from its prospects and has too many 1st base/DH type players.
KEY MAN: I-Rod
UNSUNG HERO: Craig Monroe
AL WEST:
1 - Anaheim Angels: Ambitious additions signal Arte Moreno's intentions. Landing one of the greatest players in the game in Vlad Guerrero is a huge boost. The line-up is deep and powerful, although the health of Anderson, Salmon, Glaus and Erstad will be a concern after previous injuries. The rotation is much deeper with Colon and Escobar, who must both justify their big deals. Washburn and Lackey must rebound from sub-par seasons and Ramon Ortiz must continue to progress. The bullpen, anchored by Percival, will be a strength, with Francisco Rodriguez being groomed as the future closer. This team is in a tough division, but the combination of starting pitching, relief pitching, offense, defense and effort should see Mike Scioscia's Angels return to the playoffs.
KEY MAN: Anderson
UNSUNG HERO: Bengie Molina
2 - Seattle Mariners: They'll miss Cameron, Sasaki and Rhodes, but the Mariners will still be a good team. The rotation is key - Jamie Moyer must keep defying his age, Garcia must rebound from a horrible 2003, Piniero must continue to blossom, Franklin and Meche simply need to stay healthy. The bullpen is deep and full of optins for Bob Melvin. Hasegawa, Guardadao and Rafael Soriano will be a lethal late-inning combination. The offense is boosted by the arrival of Ibanez, Speizio and Aurilia, although another pure power hitter to help Bret Boone would be handy. The Mariners are a team full of veterans - thus group won't have many more chances to compete - any midseason needs must be addressed to stay in the race for the playoffs.
KEY MAN: Boone
UNSUNG HERO: Dan Wilson
3 - Oakland Athletics: Another year, another big loss as Tejada vacated for the Orioles, plus Ramon Hernandez was dealt to the Padres. At least Eric Chavez is signed up, although a lot of the offensive load will be on him. Jermaine Dye needs to be healthy Durazo needs to have the big power year he is capable of, and rookie Bobby Crosby needs to prove himself. There is a hole at second base with Mark Ellis out injured. The roatation is as strong as ever, although Mulder's injuries and Zito's decline are slight causes for concern - will the loss of pitching coach Rick Peterson be a problem? I'm sticking my neck out by predicting the A's will finish third - it's not that I don't think they are very good, it's just that they have a lot of question marks. The A's starters will keep them in contention, but the offense needs to deliver and first-time closer Arthur Rhodes needs a good year.
KEY MAN: Dye
UNSUNG HERO: Chad Bradford
4 - Texas Rangers: They've rid themselves of A-Rod's contract, which can only help them move forward. Plenty of good young hitters to watch in Soriano, Teixeira and Blalock, but the pitching staff still remsins a jumble of flops, castoffs and rookies. They need to have definite, regular roles for their pitchers if they want to contend, but they won't be close to the playoffs again this year.
KEY MAN: Blalock
UNSUNG HERO: Michael Young
NL EAST:
1- Philadelphia Phillies. A new stadium should bring new optimism for a team that looks set to end the Braves' stranglehold on the division. Keeping holdof Kevin Millwood is huge, whilst Eric Milton could be a good pickup if he stays healthy. The strong rotation will be helped by a revamped bullpen, with Billy Wagner and Tim Worrell combining with Rheal Cormier in the late innings - much more reliable than Jose Mesa was! The Phillies' offense rests with Thome and Abreu, although a bounce-back season from Pat Burrell could make all the difference. The Phillies have a nice mix of youth and experience, and if the players and fiery manager Larry Bowa can all get along, their new ballpark will be hosting playoff baseball in its first season.
KEY MAN: Burrell
UNSUNG HERO: Placido Polanco
2 - Florida Marlins: The defending World Champions (!) return, minus some big names, but the nucleus of young pitchers will not make them one-season wonders. There are worries about sophomore slumps for Dontrelle Willis and co., and the line-up will miss I-Rod, Lee and Encarnacion. However, they do have a full season of Miguel Cabrera to look forward to, and they have the dynamic duo of Pierre and Castillo at the top of the order. Veterans Mike Lowell and Jeff Conine will be crucial both on the field and in the clubhouse. I can't see them making the playoffs again, but this team got a taste of winning last year and want more of the same.
KEY MAN: Lowell
UNSUNG HERO: Armando Benitez
3 - Atlanta Braves: It seems as though the Braves' dynasty has supposed to have ended for the past few years, but this year it must surely happen. Not only has Maddux left, but the offense of Sheffield, Lopez and Fick has also gone. A lot of pressure on JD Drew finally putting together a big, injury-free, year. Even so, the rotation is not as strong as last year, and they could do with a top-notch set-up man ahead of John Smoltz. A lot to replace, and I don't think that they will be able to do it.
KEY MAN: Drew
UNSUNG HERO: Marcus Giles
4 - New York Mets: Some new faces in Cameron and Kaz Matsui, plus some more young pitching talent (Kazmir, Ring) is likely to see some playing time this year. Mike Piazza will have to stay healthy and handlethe transition to first base. Cliff Floyd will put up decent numbers - leg injuries permitting. The veteran pitchers - Leiter and Glavine - will have to lead the pitching staff, and although the Mets are better this year than last, there are a few too many question marks (right field, set-up men) to make them serious challengers.
KEY MAN: Floyd
UNSUNG HERO: Cameron
5 - Montreal Expos: It will be a tough year for the vagabond Expos, still uncertain about their future and having to play without Guerrero and Vazquez. Those two will be hard to replace, although getting Tony Batista and Carl Everett could be smart business by the very talented Omar Minaya. They will be helped by the return of Tony Armas Jr. from injury, but if the Expos are not in the race by the trading deadline, innings-eater Livan Hernandez may be traded, and the wonderful double-play duo of Orlando Cabrera and Jose Vidro may not be together for much longer. A challenge for Frank Robinson, but he will relish it.
KEY MAN: Vidro
UNSUNG HERO: Brad Wilkerson
NL CENTRAL:
1 - Chicago Cubs: They came agonisingly close to the World Series last year, but this team is back - and better. As if a rotation featuring Wood, Prior, Maddux, Zambrano and Clement wasn't enough, they added LaTroy Hawkins to the bullpen and dealt for first baseman Derrek Lee, of whom big things are expected, especially when batting behind Sosa and Alou in the line-up. There will also be a full year of Aramis Ramirez, who has good power to make up for spotty defense. There is no legitimate lead-off hitter, and Corey Patterson is returning from injury, but Dusty Baker will be leading his team to the playoffs again - providing he protects his young pitchers' arms.
KEY MAN: Sosa
UNSUNG HERO: Clement
2 - Houston Astros: They traded Wagner, but added Clemens and Pettitte in a turnaround of spending attitude. Oswalt and Miller will benefit from the veteran presence, and there is depth in the rotation, with Redding, Robertson and Hernandez ones for the future. The offense will be as powerful as usual, especially if Kent can keep healhty and Morgan Ensberg can replicate his power of last year. Pressure on Dotel and Lidge to step up in the bullpen, but the Astros won't be concerned if they pitch as well as they did last year. They come close to matching the Cubs' pitching staff and offense, so it will be a tight race for the division.
KEY MAN: Pettitte
UNSUNG HERO: Ensberg
3 - St. Louis Cardinals: They have one of the best players in the game in Albert Pujols, but there is also big offense from Edmonds, Rolen and Renteria. The pitching staff rests on the success of Morris and the health of Woody Williams and Isringhausen. The Cards will hit and play defense with the best of them, but they'll need the bottom part of the rotation to produce, and they need to sort out who is in left field/second base/leadoff. Good enough to win some other divisions, but not sure they can hold off two strong teams in the Cubs and Astros. No playoff baseball could signal the end of the Tony La Russa era.
KEY MAN: Williams
UNSUNG HERO: Bo Hart
4 - Cincinnati Reds: They have a great outfield in Griffey, Dunn and Kearns, but injuries and trades could keep them apart again this season. The team took a lot of flak for salary dumping last year, and they have not done much to improve the mix and match pitching staff. The bullpen had been good (before Sullivan and Williamson were dumped) albeit overworked - Danny Graves' return to closing should pay dividends after the rotation experiment ended dismally. Keep an eye out for flamethrowing reliever Ryan Wagner.
KEY MAN: Griffey
UNSUNG HERO: Sean Casey
5 - Milwaukee Brewers: It won't be pretty in Milewaukee in 2004, after dumping high-salaried players like Richie Sexson, and then signing oft-injured outfielder Geoff Jenkins to an expensive extension. They will be waiting for the very good crop of prospects to arrive in futrure years, and hoping that the pitching staff can produce better results.
KEY MAN: Jenkins
UNSUNG HERO: Wes Helms
6 - Pittsburgh Pirates: They dumped most of their good (read: expensive) players at the deadline last year, and didn't exactly get much in return. It's surely only a matter of time before Jason Kendall is dealt, if there are any takers for his contract. Aside from some great defense from Jack Wilson, there won't be much to enjoy at PNC Park this year.
KEY MAN: Kendall
UNSUNG HERO: Craig Wilson
NL WEST:
1 - San Francisco Giants: This is the most difficult division to call, as there are many reasons why the Giants can't win it! I'll pick the Giants, even though there are questions of offensive support behind Barry Bonds, and the difficulties of replacing Santiago, Aurilia and Jose Cruz Jr. There are also worrires over the health of Robb Nen and Jason Schmidt, but the Giants always seem to get off to a good start, and just seem to get it done in clutch situations. They do have one of the greatest players ever in Bonds, who is still in search of that elusive World Series ring - motivation indeed.
KEY MAN: Bonds
UNSUNG HERO: Jim Brower
2 - Arizona Diamondbacks: They'll miss Schilling, and most of the roster isn't getting any younger, but Randy Johnson is healthy and Brandon Webb is a promising talent. Getting Richie Sexson gives Arizona the big power it needs to help Luis Gonzalez, although Gonzo's shoulder is a serious concern - it could go at any minute. A lot rests on whether the 3-4-5 starters (Dessens/Reynolds/Sparks) can get it done, or Bob Brenly could be out of a job.
KEY MAN: Gonzalez
UNSUNG HERO: Steve Finley
3 - Los Angeles Dodgers: The pitching and defense should be strengths, but it all comes down to whether they can score enough runs - a lot of pressure on the starters knowing that anything more than three runs allowed likely equals a loss. At least the bullpen can protect leads, led by Cy Young winner Eric Gagne. Finding support for Shawn Green is critical - if they can, they are in business; if not, it'll be another difficult year at Chavez Ravine.
KEY MAN: Green
UNSUNG HERO: Jolbert Cabrera
4 - San Diego Padres: A new stadium, new uniforms, and a much improved team as well. A lineup containing Brian Giles, Nevin and Klesko (plus new boys Payton and Ramon Hernandez) will be tough to pitch against, but can the young pitchers (Lawrence, Peavy, Tankersley etc.) show improvement. They are dark horses for a possible playoff push, but only if David Wells and Trevor Hoffman are healthy.
KEY MAN: Giles
UNSUNG HERO: Mark Loretta
5 - Colorado Rockies: They have some great hitters in Helton, Preston Wilson and Walker, but the thin air will mean a tough time for the pitching staff. Jason Jennings will be looking to rebound, and there are plenty of young arms with Denny Stark, Aaron Cook etc. Shawn Chacon will take over at closer, but the surreal playing conditions at Coorsfield make it very difficult for a team to make a serious playoff push, especially when their road form is not good. I've tipped them to finish last, but the gap between top and bottom in this division may not be that big.
KEY MAN: Helton
UNSUNG HERO: Jeromy Burnitz
PLAYOFF TEAMS:
AL:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox (Wild Card)
Kansas City Royals
Anaheim Angels
NL:
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros (Wild Card)
San Francisco Giants
WORLD SERIES PREDICTION:
Boston Red Sox will beat Chicago Cubs in seven games.
This dream match-up came so close to reality last year, but there are plenty of reasons to think that it could come true this year. Boston have the desire to overcome the Yankees, and take revenge for last season's heart-breaking playoff defeat to their bitter rivals. The Cubs' rotation is phenomenal, plus you have to agree that Sammy Sosa deserves to play in a World Series.
OTHER PREDICTIONS:
Batting Titles:
AL: Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox)
NL: Todd Helton (Colorado Rockies)
Home runs:
AL: Carlos Delgado (Toronto Blue Jays)
NL: Jim Thome (Philadelphia Phillies)
RBIs:
AL: Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees)
NL: Todd Helton (Colorado Rockies)
Wins:
AL: Mark Mulder (Oakland Athletics)
NL: Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros)
ERA:
AL: Pedro Martinez (Boston Red Sox)
NL: Mark Prior (Chicago Cubs)
Saves:
AL: Mariano Rivera (Boston Red Sox)
NL: Eric Gagne (Los Angeles Dodgers)
MVP:
AL: Carlos Delgado (Toronto Blue Jays)
NL: Albert Pujols (St Louis Cardinals)
Cy Young:
AL: Mark Mulder (Oakland Athletics)
NL: Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros)
First Manager to be Fired:
AL: Buck Showalter (Texas Rangers)
NL: Larry Bowa (Philadelphia Phillies)
There you have it! Feel free to pin these to the fridge and chart my progress, and e-mail me at baseballfeedback@yahoo.co.uk with your own picks!