Here are my predictions for the upcoming season. I've tried to keep the general analysis brief, as there are a lot of teams to go through. So here are my thoughts - drumroll please!
AL EAST:
1 – YANKEES: Have spent big in attempt to get back to Championship ways. Lots of hype over Matsui (I’ve got him down for 20-25 homers) and Contreras – we’ll have to see how they handle it. Health of rotation still a key, and Clemens and Wells aren’t getting any younger.
2 – RED SOX: Good work on improving bullpen – interesting to see how closer-by-committee works. Additions of Jeremy Giambi, Todd Walker, Kevin Millar give strength in depth. Will have to hope Pedro, Manny and Nomar stay healthy and that Lowe has another big year. They’d better sort out Pedro’s contract situation soon, otherwise it could be a big distraction. Will chase Yankees hard, but will have to settle for Wild Card.
3 – BLUE JAYS: Lots of good young talent – will have to see how well Phelps and Werth (amongst others) produce in a full season. Rotation a little suspect, but this team is moving in the right direction and will be fun to watch. Just hope Toronto citizens realise this.
4 – ORIOLES: Missed out on getting the big bat they desperately need, but at least Segui is back from injury. Bullpen looks very useful, but may be gutted by trading deadline. Not much sign of help from the minor leagues either.
5 – DEVIL RAYS: Will be the worst team in baseball. Pressure on Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli to justify quick promotion to the majors. Piniella will improve them (slightly), but he’ll wish he was back in Seattle by end of April.
AL CENTRAL:
1 – TWINS: More of the same from last year, plus Radke and Mays should be healthier. Santana in the rotation for injured Milton actually improves them, plus they have plenty of young hitters (Cuddyer, Restovich etc.) waiting to break out.
2 – WHITE SOX: Getting Bartolo Colon improves them, but there are question marks about whether he and Mark Buerhle can carry the rest of the rotation – they need a decent 3rd starter (Kenny Rogers, Chuck Finley). Need Frank Thomas to help Magglio Ordonez and Konerko drive in the runs, and will have to hope the young players (Crede, Borchard, Rowand, Harris, Olivio) all produce. Clubhouse not as together as the Twins, so I can’t see them taking the division.
3 – INDIANS: Tons of young talent. May need adjustment time, but you have to think some of them will have good first years. Third base a question mark – Brandon Phillips could end up there if the amazing defensive duo of Vizquel and John McDonald are up the middle. They know they won’t contend right now, but are in good shape for next few years.
4 – ROYALS: Very thin pitching staff will have to be bailed out by Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran’s bats. Expect Beltran to be dealt by deadline and keep an eye on highly-touted prospects Ken Harvey and Angel Berroa.
5 – TIGERS: Tough job for Alan Trammell. Pitching staff weak, and not a lot of offensive help either. Too many first base/DH types and not much team speed. The Tigers trying to win will still not be as good as Cleveland in rebuilding mode.
AL WEST:
1 – A’s: Fantastic rotation gives them great advantage, plus depth in minor leagues. Will need Chavez, Dye and Tejada to again lead them offensively and will hope for improvements from Long and Hernandez. May miss veteran leadership of David Justice, but still one of the best teams around. Will hope Tejada contract situation doesn’t distract them.
2 – ANGELS: Last year’s Champs return with pretty much identical roster, plus full seasons from Francisco Rodriguez and John Lackey. Eric Owens will be useful guy off the bench. May need another lefty in the bullpen, but you can’t fault this team for togetherness and work ethic. Will challenge both A’s and Boston for play-off places, but fall just short.
3 – MARINERS: Have added to the bench, but not sure they’ll make the play-offs. Starting pitching and bullpen will be great, but they need a big power bat to help out Edgar Martinez and Bret Boone – Randy Winn is not that. May need time to adjust to Bob Melvin’s management style after Piniella.
4 – RANGERS: New manager, plenty more pitchers, not much hope of making the play-offs. Rotation unsettled, plus Chan Ho Park cannot be considered a true “ace”. Will score lots of runs, with Blalock and Teixeira hoping to win regular starting jobs. Still have to learn to spend more wisely, but will save around $30 million at end of the season by letting veterans walk away.
NL EAST:
1 – PHILLIES: A lot expected after ambitious additions of Thome and Bell, plus signing Wolf and Burrell to contract extensions – means pressure lessened on Marlon Byrd to produce immediately. Rotation is young and talented and batting line-up deep, but bullpen not entirely reliable. Expect them to trade for bullpen help.
2 – BRAVES: Kept Maddux, but losses of Glavine, Millwood and most of bullpen will hurt them, as Byrd, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton are all hardly sure things. Great outfield of the two Joneses and Sheffield, but will need help from Javy Lopez and Vinny Castilla. Keep an eye on Mark DeRosa: if he wins a starting job, I’d back him to have a good season. Braves fail to make play-offs for first time in years.
3 – METS: Adding Glavine, Floyd and Stanton helps them, but still not sure about this team. Outfield defence is a worry, plus Vaughn needs to rebound and Piazza is starting to show signs of decline. A lot of money tied up in a mostly old team: Art Howe will have to work hard.
4 – EXPOS: Trading Colon to cut costs hurts their chances, but they still have Vazquez and Tomo Ohka, who looked good last season. Will hope Orlando Hernandez steers clear of injury. Offense rests on Vladimir Guerrero and healthy-again Jose Vidro. Fernando Tatis needs to play hard and stay injury-free to help them.
5 – MARLINS: Didn’t want to commit $1 million or so to their ace pitcher, but then spend $10 million on an injury-prone catcher. Ivan Rodriguez’s arrival blocks chances of Mike Redmond and Ramon Castro, and will do little to attract many more fans. Absence of Cliff Floyd and Kevin Millar will hurt them offensively – a lot rests on Derrek Lee and Mike Lowell, who may be next to be traded.
NL CENTRAL:
1 – CARDINALS: Health of starting pitching crucial, but if all goes well, will be class of division. Bullpen looks pretty good if Isringhausen can recover well from surgery. Tremendous batting line-up (Edmonds, Pujols, Rolen, Renteria) and superb defence could mean World Series appearance.
2 – ASTROS: Addition of Jeff Kent a big boost to team, even though Biggio may take time to adjust to new position of centrefield. Berkman’s a big offensive contributor and Bagwell should be healthier. Rotation after Miller and Oswalt a bit of a concern if young pitchers struggle to settle, but bullpen combination of Dotel/Wagner very strong. Wild Card Winners.
3 – CUBS: Plenty of new faces and new optimism at Wrigley Field. Young pitching staff looks great for many future years, plus re-vamped bullpen is much better than previous years. Moises Alou must stay injury-free and be productive to help Sammy Sosa carry the offensive load. Dark horse for play-offs, but have two good teams above them.
4 – REDS: Great outfield of Dunn, Griffey and Kearns. Will have to see how Aaron Boone and Danny Graves adjust to new positions. Pitching staff not strong enough to contend with other teams in division, so best they can hope for is to battle for 3rd place.
5 – PIRATES: Brian Giles will lead the team again, but will hope for help from Jason Kendall and Aramis Ramirez. Pitching had some nice surprises last year in Wells and Fogg, plus Kris Benson should return from injury soon. It won’t be pretty, but they’ll try to avoid last place.
6 – BREWERS: Not much to get excited about. Richie Sexson will launch some homers, but don’t count on much help from injury-prone pair of Geoff Jenkins and Jeffrey Hammonds. Low-budget pitching won’t be that good, but they’ll hope that Ben Sheets can live up to his promise of a few years ago.
NL WEST:
1 – DIAMONDBACKS: Schilling and Johnson are an awesome pitching pair, plus a full season of John Patterson and the addition of Elmer Dessens should strengthen the rotation further. Not sure whether Kim will be a success as a starting pitcher – I’d have him close until Matt Mantei is 100% healthy. Luis Gonzalez is coming back from injury, but is still the main guy with the bat. Watch how Lyle Overgaby does under the tuition of Mark Grace, and how Chad Moeller and Rod Barajas shape up at catcher. An old team with a lot of money tied up in it, but that hasn’t stopped them from winning the division before.
2 – DODGERS: Health of rotation crucial to play-off hopes: a healthy Brown and Dreifort could make the difference. Eric Gagne and Odalis Perez needs to show last year wasn’t a fluke. Green the main offensive threat, but if supporting cast of Lo Duca, Jordan, McGriff and Beltre all chip in, it could be a deep line-up – even better if more team speed and higher on-base percentages can be achieved. Wait and see how Izturis, Cora and Thurston split the middle infield playing time, and whether Daryle Ward and Todd Hundley can provide left-handed power off the bench. Will battle hard for division and Wild Card, but are up against some tough teams.
3 – GIANTS: So they’ve still got Bonds, but without Jeff Kent behind him, this line-up doesn’t scare me as much. A lot depends on Edgardo Alfonzo and Jose Cruz, who will bat either side of Bonds. Closer Robb Nen is coming off arm surgery, which is a slight worry. The starting pitching was great last year, with Jason Schmidt showing signs of a true ace. A lot of new faces, including a new manager (Felipe Alou) who has little pennant race experience, and the loss of some key guys (David Bell and Dusty Baker) means I can’t see them making the play-offs. Wild Card contenders.
4 – ROCKIES: Lots of new faces at Coorsfield, including Preston Wilson and Charles Johnson, who gives Colorado its first regular catcher for some time. Jose Hernandez could be a bargain signing at third base/shortstop. Pitching staff still learning, and they could do with losing Denny Neagle’s contract to invest in the future. Todd Helton and (if healthy) Larry Walker will put up big hitting stats, but they’ll have to be content with 4th.
5 – PADRES: Plenty of future promise with talented youngsters ready to gain major league experience. Brian Lawrence looks a fine pitcher, and Sean Burroughs and Xavier Nady will be expected to do well. Loss of Phil Nevin for the season through a shoulder injury means offence will rely on Ryan Klesko and the under-rated Mark Kotsay. Closer Trevor Hoffman’s injury (out until All-Star break) means bullpen will be unsettled. Will be a good team, but not quite yet.
WORLD SERIES PREDICTION:
YANKEES over CARDINALS in 6 games.
As much as I’d like to see the Dodgers win it all, I can’t see it happening. The Yankees haven’t won for two years – Steinbrenner will make sure this does not continue. I’d love to see the A’s win it, but they’ll have to overcome the hurdle of the first round of the play-offs. I have a lot of respect for the Cards after what they went through last season with the deaths of Darryl Kile and Jack Buck. St. Louis may have the most well-balanced team in baseball.
Thanks for reading!
Feel free to pin these up on the fridge and check my progress with any of your own pre-season predictions!
Enjoy the new season!