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Seed freshness
I have to say that freshness of seed is the most important factor as far as I’m concerned.
This dawned on me after a batch of Livistona chinensis
I had been cosseting them but losing them to rot.
I soaked them in Milton: rot.
Dusted them with sulphur powder: slower rot.
Vermiculite mix: rot.
Drier vermiculite mix: no germination.
In desperation after several months of this I picked out the embryos with a sharp knife (they‘re visible on almost all the seeds I’ve handled as a raised circle, often on the side of the seed). Every embryo was shrivelled and dead. I thought back to when I had received them and remembered noting that one of the seeds had an empty hole where the embryo was, filled with green mould. I had discarded this in my innocence as an exception. But it was clear to me that all the seeds had been old and mouldy. I wrote to the suppliers. They were very good and replaced the seeds as soon as possible. What a difference. Some germinated in the post, and from the rest I had a germination rate within two months: 53/53 seeds. And the lesson is.......( well, maybe lessons).
With some companies the seed quantity is so small that cutting one open to look at the embryo (as I've seen recommended, and is shown in the section on testing the seed embryo) reduces the supply too far: if there’s only five or six seeds for example.
Apart from the above, I know of no simple way of judging beyond a general healthy look. Additional note: a covering of fruit or flesh that looks/feels fresh is a reasonable guide, but make sure this is entirely cleaned off, as it can encourage mould.
Testing the seed embryo
This is based on a Trachycarpus seed, where the embryo bulge is easy to see. If you
look carefully at most palm seeds you will find such a bulge. Of course some seeds
are very tough - e.g. Butia, and the following wont work. In the case of Butias and
others, try cracking the seed at one of the ends of the seed with hammer. If you
are lucky the seed will not just crack around the embryo cavities, and not damage
them, but you may be able to germinate the embryo after this.
The embryo should look like the one in ‘A’. If its like the one in ‘B’ this seed
would not have germinated - and the others may be the same.