TMRCA 95%

The following looks at 95% probability that the Time to Most recent Common Ancestry is no longer than the number of generations indicated.  In this case for the number of markers specified. NB: It is probably safer to be guided by the 95% probability table.

Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Generations)

ID

C
h
r
i
s

M
i
k
e


F
r
e
d


P
h
i
l
i
p


D
o
n
a
l
d

W

J
o
e

D
a
v
i
d

P
   

R
i
c
k

A
l
f

H

A

L
e
v
i

 

R
o
b


T

A
l
p
h
e

T

A
l
f

R
i
c
h

B

J
o
e
l

W
   

V
a
n

R
o
b

N

J
o
h
n

A

L
e
a
n
d
e
r

G
l
e
n
n


K
e
n



B
r
y
o
n


R
o
s
s

P

J
a
m
e
s

L

J
e
r
r
y


D
a
v
i
d

N

J
a
m
i
e


W
i
l
l
i
a
m

W

F
r
e
d

C

F
r
e
d

A


A
r
t
h
u
r

F

M
a
r
c
u
s

J
o
e

A

D
o
n
a
l
d

R
o
b
t

L

D
o
u
g



D
a
v
i
d

H


D
o
n
o
v
a
n

J

R
i
c
h
a
r
d

C

J
o
e


V
i
c


J
o
h
n

S


L
a
r
r
y


Q
u
i
n
t
o
n


 

Chris Atkinson

76

25

25

31

28

24

32

16

65

70

66

81

96

69

75

72

86

86

81

178

286

86

60

283

266

178

167

247

81

179

99

80

159

176

144

88

144

80

160

86

144

176

106

189

 

Mike Atkinson

25

48

14

15

8

28

45

36

81

86

74

98

111

86

92

93

104

104

98

200

255

92

75

224

247

201

167

314

92

205

110

99

159

176

144

129

144

99

149

98

144

176

106

189

 

Fred Atkinson

25

14

43

19

16

30

51

40

86

92

83

104

119

97

105

101

111

111

104

215

255

98

81

224

247

201

167

314

98

205

110

123

159

176

144

132

144

113

155

104

144

176

115

189

 

Philip Atkinson 

31

15

19

41

13

35

45

36

94

101

85

109

127

92

99

104

116

116

109

207

255

101

75

188

225

207

134

300

94

225

110

106

197

176

144

123

144

99

149

109

144

176

115

192

 

Donald W Atkisson 

28

8

16

13

37

32

45

36

82

89

77

97

109

86

92

96

97

97

89

172

231

89

75

179

200

219

132

270

89

200

110

99

131

176

144

106

144

99

149

97

144

176

97

168

 

Joe Atkinson 

24

28

30

35

32

75

45

36

77

82

83

82

92

64

69

61

88

88

82

176

247

100

66

250

241

210

163

241

88

174

110

99

140

176

176

90

117

86

139

94

176

144

109

173

 

David Paul Atkinson 

32

45

51

45

45

45

37

28

69

75

67

89

100

59

64

71

82

82

89

186

231

82

75

203

219

200

143

200

82

168

110

80

174

213

94

75

176

80

149

75

176

176

88

155

 

Rick Rakestraw

16

36

40

36

36

36

28

37

69

75

67

75

91

64

69

63

69

69

63

202

260

75

69

232

219

168

132

200

82

183

110

86

174

176

144

86

144

69

160

82

144

176

97

168

 

Alf H Atkinsons G.S

65

81

86

94

82

77

69

69

43

14

28

42

44

46

40

43

56

56

60

201

230

47

60

250

247

140

132

247

60

205

45

57

56

144

94

81

117

57

219

42

94

72

67

158

 

A Levi Atkinsons G.S

70

86

92

101

89

82

75

75

14

43

28

47

49

51

46

43

60

60

65

215

230

42

56

250

266

132

125

230

65

191

45

63

56

144

94

86

117

63

242

47

94

72

67

167

 

Rob Atkinson

66

74

83

85

77

83

67

67

28

28

26

50

53

49

40

35

50

50

58

183

183

50

74

250

250

202

125

283

66

241

50

77

133

117

72

58

94

58

232

28

94

94

79

151

 

T Alphe? Atkinsons G.S

81

98

104

109

97

82

89

75

42

47

50

43

9

57

51

54

60

60

65

215

255

75

81

224

247

132

149

230

75

179

62

82

102

176

144

98

117

30

242

70

144

31

115

178

 

T Alf Atkinsons G.S

96

111

119

127

109

92

100

91

44

49

53

9

38

61

54

59

60

60

65

218

283

90

96

220

255

145

165

277

90

192

72

91

102

176

144

111

117

35

259

71

144

31

121

177

 

Rich B Atkinson 

69

86

97

92

86

64

59

64

46

51

49

57

61

37

13

18

46

46

51

130

170

69

89

179

168

168

113

183

63

183

79

69

174

117

94

59

72

75

139

57

117

72

80

113

 

Joel Walter Atkinson

75

92

105

99

92

69

64

69

40

46

40

51

54

13

37

11

46

46

51

139

170

63

82

179

155

168

113

183

57

183

70

64

174

117

94

54

72

69

149

51

117

72

80

123

 

Van Atkinson

72

93

101

104

96

61

71

63

43

43

35

54

59

18

11

34

54

54

60

183

186

60

79

224

233

197

117

233

72

226

77

78

241

117

94

79

72

56

203

48

117

72

92

146

 

Rob N Atkinsons G.S

86

104

111

116

97

88

82

69

56

60

50

60

60

46

46

54

43

8

14

189

175

86

92

224

189

125

140

189

75

191

79

82

102

94

52

56

117

46

155

51

117

117

67

149

 

John A Adkison

86

104

111

116

97

88

82

69

56

60

50

60

60

46

46

54

8

43

14

189

175

86

92

224

189

125

140

189

75

191

79

82

102

94

52

56

117

46

155

51

117

117

67

149

 

Leander Atkinsons Son

81

98

104

109

89

82

89

63

60

65

58

65

65

51

51

60

14

14

43

189

175

86

92

224

189

125

140

189

81

179

89

89

102

94

72

60

117

51

155

56

117

144

74

158

 

Glenn Atkinson

178

200

215

207

172

176

186

202

201

215

183

215

218

130

139

183

189

189

189

76

18

189

266

113

70

215

201

158

230

149

223

202

310

213

262

172

262

220

54

215

262

262

230

65

 

Ken Adkinson

286

255

255

255

231

247

231

260

230

230

183

255

283

170

170

186

175

175

175

18

30

191

230

129

53

209

175

125

191

148

237

207

310

176

213

161

328

207

50

191

328

328

209

74

 

Bryon Atkinson

86

92

98

101

89

100

82

75

47

42

50

75

90

69

63

60

86

86

86

189

191

43

65

202

230

189

140

201

86

219

70

82

102

144

144

98

117

82

219

70

72

176

74

178

 

Ross P. Atkinson

60

75

81

75

75

66

75

69

60

56

74

81

96

89

82

79

92

92

92

266

230

65

43

224

230

167

118

178

70

158

99

63

102

117

176

104

213

75

200

75

213

213

89

201

 

James L Atkisson

283

224

224

188

179

250

203

232

250

250

250

224

220

179

179

224

224

224

224

113

129

202

224

26

125

166

151

125

283

106

241

232

265

262

262

202

328

232

112

283

262

262

207

151

 

Jerry Adkisson

266

247

247

225

200

241

219

219

247

266

250

247

255

168

155

233

189

189

189

70

53

230

230

125

43

178

167

132

189

149

223

143

310

176

262

178

434

183

63

215

434

434

175

86

 

David N Atkinson

178

201

201

207

219

210

200

168

140

132

202

132

145

168

168

197

125

125

125

215

209

189

167

166

178

43

167

178

140

168

181

219

197

262

262

167

434

132

219

149

328

262

209

215

 

Jamie Atkinson

167

167

167

134

132

163

143

132

132

125

125

149

165

113

113

117

140

140

140

201

175

140

118

151

167

167

45

230

158

179

163

143

197

144

144

140

144

132

155

118

213

144

125

149

 

William W Atkinson

247

314

314

300

270

241

200

200

247

230

283

230

277

183

183

233

189

189

189

158

125

201

178

125

132

178

230

43

215

96

223

155

244

262

673

201

201

183

155

247

434

434

209

167

 

Fred C Atkinson G.S

81

92

98

94

89

88

82

82

60

65

66

75

90

63

57

72

75

75

81

230

191

86

70

283

189

140

158

215

43

179

79

51

128

72

94

81

144

63

183

75

176

144

89

201

 

Fred A Atkinsons G.S

179

205

205

225

200

174

168

183

205

191

241

179

192

183

183

226

191

191

179

149

148

219

158

106

149

168

179

96

179

41

200

155

244

213

262

205

673

168

123

219

673

434

209

131

 

Arthur F Atkinson 

99

110

110

110

110

110

110

110

45

45

50

62

72

79

70

77

79

79

89

223

237

70

99

241

223

181

163

223

79

200

25

79

68

144

94

79

117

79

282

79

72

94

83

181

 

Marcus W Acheson 

80

99

123

106

99

99

80

86

57

63

77

82

91

69

64

78

82

82

89

202

207

82

63

232

143

219

143

155

51

155

79

37

68

117

94

69

176

92

186

75

213

176

44

143

 

GGSon of Joe A Atkinson

159

159

159

197

131

140

174

174

56

56

133

102

102

174

174

241

102

102

102

310

310

102

102

265

310

197

197

244

128

244

68

68

11

366

366

128

128

131

232

128

128

366

102

197

 

Donald Atkinson 

176

176

176

176

176

176

213

176

144

144

117

176

176

117

117

117

94

94

94

213

176

144

117

262

176

262

144

262

72

213

144

117

366

12

117

117

144

144

213

94

144

176

117

213

 

Robt Louis Atkinson

144

144

144

144

144

176

94

144

94

94

72

144

144

94

94

94

52

52

72

262

213

144

176

262

262

262

144

673

94

262

94

94

366

117

12

31

144

117

213

52

144

144

72

144

 

Doug Atkinson

88

129

132

123

106

90

75

86

81

86

58

98

111

59

54

79

56

56

60

172

161

98

104

202

178

167

140

201

81

205

79

69

128

117

31

76

144

69

130

70

144

144

67

158

 

David H Atkinson

144

144

144

144

144

117

176

144

117

117

94

117

117

72

72

72

117

117

117

262

328

117

213

328

434

434

144

201

144

673

117

176

128

144

144

144

12

176

434

117

117

117

144

262

 

Donovan J Atkinson

80

99

113

99

99

86

80

69

57

63

58

30

35

75

69

56

46

46

51

220

207

82

75

232

183

132

132

183

63

168

79

92

131

144

117

69

176

37

186

63

176

72

97

155

 

Richard C Atkinson

160

149

155

149

149

139

149

160

219

242

232

242

259

139

149

203

155

155

155

54

50

219

200

112

63

219

155

155

183

123

282

186

232

213

213

130

434

186

37

183

434

434

187

57

 

Desc of Joe Atkinson

86

98

104

109

97

94

75

82

42

47

28

70

71

57

51

48

51

51

56

215

191

70

75

283

215

149

118

247

75

219

79

75

128

94

52

70

117

63

183

43

117

117

53

158

 

Vic Sullivan

144

144

144

144

144

176

176

144

94

94

94

144

144

117

117

117

117

117

117

262

328

72

213

262

434

328

213

434

176

673

72

213

128

144

144

144

117

176

434

117

12

144

144

328

 

John Sheridan Atkinson

176

176

176

176

176

144

176

176

72

72

94

31

31

72

72

72

117

117

144

262

328

176

213

262

434

262

144

434

144

434

94

176

366

176

144

144

117

72

434

117

144

12

144

213

 

Larry Atkinson

106

106

115

115

97

109

88

97

67

67

79

115

121

80

80

92

67

67

74

230

209

74

89

207

175

209

125

209

89

209

83

44

102

117

72

67

144

97

187

53

144

144

30

161

 

Quinton Atkinson

189

189

189

192

168

173

155

168

158

167

151

178

177

113

123

146

149

149

158

65

74

178

201

151

86

215

149

167

201

131

181

143

197

213

144

158

262

155

57

158

328

213

161

43

 

0-9 Generations

10-19 Generations

20-29 Generations

30-39 Generations

- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0037 to 0.0054, from FTDNA derived rates
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- Probability is
95% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated

 

From this it can be seen that there is a 95% probability that the Time to the Most recent Common Ancestor for Chris and Mike is within 25 generations. 

 

I've used here the mutation rate as used by Family Tree DNA. Some believe that this is over optimistic and one should multiply the generations above by 11/2 to 21/2.

 

However of interest Relative Genetics when comparing Chris's results to Mike based on their individual marker comparisons and a 40/43 match give the most likely generation in which they are related as 14 .

 

NB: My BEST ADVICE to people is to test on as many markers as they can afford. certainly 25 or more (preferably 37 or more). For a common surname like Atkinson any less, in my opinion, is meaningless. When results have been received upload them to Y Search - this will enable access to a larger database then individual companies maintain, thus increasing the odds of finding a match. (I think it also helps to upload a Gedcom File). When reading results I would suggest that the number of generations back to the earliest origin of surnames is probably no more than 20 to 30 generations ie about 800 yrs. Finally, if you don't have a paper-trail which is confirmed by the DNA, I would probably be guided by the 95% probability results.

 

Discussion of Results

 

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