It can be seen that when one looks for a 95% probability of a connection within the time frame of surnames the number of participants who may be connected drops off. Those who have only tested on 12 markers should also be viewed with extreme caution. The certainty with which conclusions can be drawn increases with the numbers of markers tested.

Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Generations)  

ID

R
o
b

T

A
?

T

A
l
f

R
i
c
h

B


 

V
a
n

R
o
b

N

J
o
h
n

A

L
e
a
n
d
e
r

J
a
m
e
s

L

D
a
v
i
d

P
 

M
a
r
i
o
n

D

M

D
o
u
g

A
r
t
h
u
r

J
o
s
h
u
a

D
a
v
i
d

A
t
k
i
n
s

K
y
l
e

F
r
e
d

G
e
o
r
g
e

A
d
k
i
n
s

A
d
k
i
n
s

G
a
r
y

A
d
k
i
n
s

 

Rob Atkinson

26

50

53

49

35

50

50

58

250

67

250

250

32

32

32

32

32

262

262

262

262

203

49

 

T Alphe? Atkinsons G.S

50

43

9

57

43

60

74

65

224

89

215

215

69

63

63

63

63

262

262

262

262

180

92

 

T Alf Atkinsons G.S

53

9

38

61

45

60

78

65

220

100

218

218

68

61

61

61

61

262

262

262

262

184

94

 

Rich B Atkinson 

49

57

61

37

24

46

40

51

179

59

168

168

59

64

59

64

59

262

262

262

262

160

69

 

Van Atkinson

35

43

45

24

26

43

43

50

224

77

224

224

40

40

40

40

40

262

262

262

262

179

58

 

Rob N Atkinsons G.S

50

60

60

46

43

43

13

14

224

82

201

201

57

57

57

57

57

328

328

328

328

154

60

 

John A Adkison

50

74

78

40

43

13

26

21

224

77

224

224

49

49

49

49

49

328

328

328

328

179

32

 

Leander Atkinsons Son

58

65

65

51

50

14

21

43

224

89

201

201

63

63

63

63

63

328

328

328

328

154

55

 

James L Atkisson

250

224

220

179

224

224

224

224

26

203

13

13

179

179

179

179

179

31

31

31

31

14

203

 

David Paul Atkinson 

67

89

100

59

77

82

77

89

203

37

168

168

69

75

69

75

69

213

213

213

213

160

86

 

Marion D Atkins G.S

250

215

218

168

224

201

224

201

13

168

43

8

168

155

168

168

168

31

31

31

31

9

180

 

M Douglas Atkins G.G.G.S

250

215

218

168

224

201

224

201

13

168

8

43

168

155

168

168

168

31

31

31

31

9

180

 

Arthur Atkins

32

69

68

59

40

57

49

63

179

69

168

168

37

16

20

16

16

262

262

262

262

160

59

 

Joshua Atkins

32

63

61

64

40

57

49

63

179

75

155

155

16

37

20

16

16

262

262

262

262

149

59

 

David Atkins

32

63

61

59

40

57

49

63

179

69

168

168

20

20

37

13

13

262

262

262

262

160

50

 

Atkins

32

63

61

64

40

57

49

63

179

75

168

168

16

16

13

37

16

262

262

262

262

160

50

 

Kyle Atkins

32

63

61

59

40

57

49

63

179

69

168

168

16

16

13

16

37

262

262

262

262

160

54

 

Fred Adkins

262

262

262

262

262

328

328

328

31

213

31

31

262

262

262

262

262

12

31

31

31

31

328

 

George Adkins

262

262

262

262

262

328

328

328

31

213

31

31

262

262

262

262

262

31

12

31

31

31

328

 

Adkins

262

262

262

262

262

328

328

328

31

213

31

31

262

262

262

262

262

31

31

12

31

31

328

 

Adkins

262

262

262

262

262

328

328

328

31

213

31

31

262

262

262

262

262

31

31

31

12

31

328

 

Gary Atkins

203

180

184

160

179

154

179

154

14

160

9

9

160

149

160

160

160

31

31

31

31

67

159

 

Adkins

49

92

94

69

58

60

32

55

203

86

180

180

59

59

50

50

54

328

328

328

328

159

67

 

0-9 Generations

10-19 Generations

20-29 Generations

30-39 Generations

- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0040 to 0.0054, from FTDNA derived rates
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- Probability is 95% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated