If we compare
known records with the above estimates based
on population ratio, there is a substantial difference.
Parish records suggest
that the number of Quines living around the year 1515 would be
around 200 people. As we have 56 Quine households recorded on the Manorial Roll.
Recorded households by parish
on the Manorial Roll years 1511 -1515
|
Quine Households |
Parish (Year) |
|
2 |
Arbory (1511) |
|
2 |
Malew (1511) |
|
11 |
Satan (1511) |
|
4 |
Marown (1511) |
|
14 |
Braddan (1511) |
|
4 |
Onchan (1511) |
|
7 |
German (1515) |
|
7 |
Ballaugh (1515) |
|
5 |
Andreas (1515) |
|
56 |
Total Households |
This indicates that many Quine
families
had left the island before the 1881 census. If we use the Manorial
Roll population estimate of 56 households there would be around 200
Quine people in the year 1515. Using an annual population growth
rate of 0.57%, there would have been around 1,000 Quines on the island
by the year 1800 and 1,600 by the year 1881.
Many
families left to start new lives in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, England and the U.S.A and
there are 471 Quine
individuals listed in 1870 US
Federal census and 247 Quines in the 1881 England census (b)
The total population on the island
In 1830 Thomas Robert Malthus correctly observed that population
cannot grow beyond the supply of food, and that there was a mechanism
which kept population down to the means of subsistence. He referred
to this as a balancing
phenomenon achieved by misery. During good times human numbers increase to the
point where available resources are overwhelmed, at which point
misery acts to reduce the numbers. In the mid-18th century, the
death rate dropped due to improvements in sanitation and medicine.
In other words growth is not constant but influenced by many
factors.
From the early 19th century population figures are influenced by
emigration mostly to the USA, then Australia, New Zealand and Canada
from mid 1850's.
There are no reliable population figures before the year 1659, these
have been projected based on the next available calculated growth rate of
0.57%.
There are no figures on average life
expectancy, best estimates are around 33 years in the 17th century,
increasing to 35 years in 1750 and then to around 45 years by
about 1850. These low figures are often misinterpreted to mean that
people did not live to old age, this is incorrect as those who did
get through childhood and early adulthood, could expect to live to
over 60 years, as most deaths were among the very young. There was a
high rate of infant and child mortality both at birth and in the
first five years of childhood and because of this the averages are
low.
|
Year |
Population |
Population Change |
Annual
Growth |
Period |
|
1851 |
52387 |
4412 |
0.98% |
Between
1841 and 1851 |
|
1841 |
47975 |
6975 |
1.76% |
Between
1831 and 1841 |
|
1831 |
41000 |
979 |
0.26% |
Between
1821 and 1831 |
|
1821 |
40021 |
12108 |
1.30% |
Between
1792 and 1821 |
|
1792 |
27913 |
2989 |
1.63% |
Between
1784 and 1792 |
|
1784 |
24924 |
5780 |
1.04% |
Between
1757 and 1784 |
|
1757 |
19144 |
4718 |
0.96% |
Between
1726 and 1757 |
|
1726 |
14426 |
4426 |
0.57% |
Between
1659 and 1726 |
|
1659 |
10000 |
|
0.57% |
Estimated |
|
1600 |
7200 |
|
0.57% |
Estimated |
|
1550 |
5450 |
|
0.57% |
Estimated |
|
1500 |
4100 |
|
0.57% |
Estimated |
Population figures for England
as a comparison show a population of 2.3m in 1525 rising to 5.28m by
1656. This equates to annual growth of 0.63%.
Sources:
1851 Census figures – (Slower rate of increase due to emigration)
1841 Census figures
1831 Census figures
1821 First official census
1792 Return by clergy
1784 Returns by the Rectors or Vicars,
1757 Return by clergy
1726 Bishop Wilson
1659 Quakers in the Isle of Man 1655-1735 By Conal F. Carswell
1659 Challoner estimated between 9,000 and 11,000 (Dickinson in 1670
provides a crude estimate of the islands population of 10,464.
(a)
Manx Note book: 1881 household
surname count
(b)
Ancestry.co.uk
(c) Coward, Social Change and
Continuity
Other population sources available but not used:
1640 Blundell estimated at 7000 (His observations were not always
accurate and he may have not have referred to the total population
in his statement)
390 Quines listed in 1881 Isle of Man census (b)
1424 surnames are
mentioned in the 1511/1515 Manorial roll, on a count of all surnames
(Source: Surname listing in Manx Note book)
